German fear of war

 By Milton Lima

16-03-2025

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Why we forget of things important? Our minds need to be clear when we think about life in general. Our childhood, our friends, our schools, our culture and our community are the beginning of everything.

Reading a German newspaper this Sunday (16-03-2025), I see that many people are afraid that the war in Ukraine will spread. And this fear is placed before the main question: why is this war happening?

The fear of security that surrounds the German people is related to both Europe and the world, especially after the return of Donald Trump to power in the US. Trump has abandoned Europe and become an ally of Putin's Russia. This context will help us more later when we talk about the new world order.

According to the Institute Strategy Superior and the Institute Allensbach, between the years 2021 and 2025, the figure related to security will go from 81% in 2021 to 61% in 2025; follow this relationship, as the country had an election a few days ago, in which the AfD did very well.

What would the fear of a military conflict in Germany remind people of? How does it resemble the war in Ukraine?

There are two main issues: the fear of the German people and the war in Ukraine. The first is the Western narrative that Russia will invade Europe after Trump leaves Ukraine. The second narrative is the constant need to be able to defend itself against Russia, which Ukraine was unable to do and had to ask the US for help.

According to a report in Welt am Sonntag, the German people could be approaching the sleepwalking[1] reality of the Second World War. Back then, few could see what was happening. At the moment it seems that the German people are definitely worried that they won't be able to sleep peacefully with the threat of an expansion of the war in which Russia could invade Germany.

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[1] Metapher des Historikers Christopher Clark.

To understand the changes in the pieces on the geopolitical chessboard of modernity, we need to understand the dynamics of systemic evolution. The relationship between the memory of the German people and their perspective involves a text I wrote here earlier. And this change has a lot to do with what this chart above shows in relation to the growth of the far right in Germany, a party with clear democratic distinctions. Although the election of Friedrich Merz seems to have slowed down the growth of the far right, in the same proportion as the protests, the fact of the war in Ukraine, the withdrawal of the USA from the conflict with its military aid, raises another problem.

Friedrich Merz appears in the Welt am Sonntag alongside the German public's fears of a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine. In order to control this fear, he would be willing to reform the country's public debt, which had been under control but is suddenly becoming a problem again, as the Chancellor wants to borrow billions to calm the German public's fears.

Between fear and peace:

“Trump and his loyal Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, have decided to reshape—or more accurately, abandon—the U.S. global strategy. In their new vision, European security is now entirely Europe’s problem, and NATO expansion has become more outdated than golf courses in Florida. As the U.S. pivots toward the Indo-Pacific (read: China), Washington is effectively offering Russia massive rewards without expecting anything in return”.

The EU is about to be sacrificed on the death knell of the dollar, part 1

Milton Lima

Sociologist

03/07/2022

It is clear that a series of war diaries are coming

In seven days

This second episode brings the latest events. Important news from Eurasian places like India helps for a world tour we will have to take. 

Formally those happenings are linked to a new paradigm, so that war is not only economic but also political.  

Well, when on February 24 Russia launched a special operation (see Putin's full speech) in Ukraine, it was not only the defence of the expansion zone that NATO together with the United States that Russia was defending but also its position for a multipolar paradigm. This was clear days earlier, in early February, when Putin and Xi unveiled a strategic economic and all-technology agreement under the umbrella of the new silk road. 

The climate has taken on a very dangerous scale. Because more than once President Putin has put his armed fleet on alert for the use of deterrence, which would be on the nuclear and atomic scale, against any outside interference. 

Over a week of the war, what was at all times being expected by Russians identified as a special operation to denazify and demilitarise the neo-Nazi regime supported by the United States since the 2014 coup inside Ukraine, happened through the Western media, which at all times showed Putin as an invader and spread the idea that his plan was to return with the former USSR.

From a special operation that would find several biological weapons laboratories on the border with Russia, and violence to Russian citizens in Ukraine, where over 14,000 civilian deaths have been counted since 2014, the solution was to recognise the independence of this Russian-speaking population, Donetsk and Lugansk. And to make the public aware of the role of the special operation. What happened was the opposite, and the tenor of total war came full steam ahead with declarations and sanctions. Not to mention the combination of fascism against all Russians in Europe, considering them to be ungrateful people, with persecution even of books by Russian authors.

This led to another once again very dangerous conflict. With the climate of total war and a lot of misinformation, several airlines have announced the cancellation of trips from Europe to Russia, until in the last few days the United States also made the same announcement. In addition to the ban on banking transactions, several companies have closed their businesses in Russia. A total war was started on the country by economic means. 

In recent days, Putin has launched a law to imprison people who transmit false news, and several measures, such as the retaliation of social media in the country, like Facebook that had already blocked news from the country, and also banned them from working in Russia. 

We remember what will say, Pam Martens and Russ Martens:

There is a known $41 billion in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on Russian debt. There is likely many billions more in unknown amounts. There are also billions more in Credit Default Swaps on state-owned Russian corporate debt and non state-owned Russian corporate debt.

In addition to Wall Street not knowing which global banks and other financial institutions are on the hook to pay out on the Credit Default Swap protection they sold in case of a Russian sovereign debt default (or Russian corporate debt default), there is also approximately $100 billion of Russian sovereign debt (whose default is looking more and more likely) sitting on the balance sheets of foreign banks.